Murphy Is Alive & Well
If you have forgotten Murphy's Law, then it is time to reacquaint yourself. Edward A. Murphy Jr. was an American aerospace engineer who created this supposed "natural law" that says what can go wrong will go wrong. We live in a non-linear world, and deciding what the future holds before it happens can mess you up. Murphy surrounds the warrior and business culture alike.
As a leader, you must understand the real-world requirement for backup plans and backward planning. Backup planning for leaders is a must. I talk to so many people who tell me that they will do this or that in the days, months, or years to come. Even the brother of Jesus told us not to tell people what we will do next year but to say, Lord willing. A spirit of humility allows us to overcome obstacles, as literal pride goes before the fall. I've seen so many people tell me what they're going to do in tactical or difficult situations, and then when the plan falls apart, they've got no backup plan prepared in their minds. To fall in love with your plan is to risk organizational suicide. They were so sure of themselves until Murphy got a vote.
Murphy is alive and well in the Mountain Phase at the U.S. Army Ranger School; some consider him the official mascot. Mountain Phase is tough no matter what, and many fail the first time through and are forced to leave their class and try again. Failing the Mountain Phase of Ranger School can set you back weeks or sometimes months. I had a Ranger buddy early on in the mountain phase of Ranger School who believed his beloved Green Bay Packers would win the Super Bowl and that he would graduate Ranger School the first time through because he just had to be there. He literally said words to that effect. For your own situational awareness, the only way he'd see the playoff games of his beloved football team would be if he didn't screw up and passed each of the three Phases on time. The problem is, of course, man cannot serve two masters.
Graduating Mountain Phase the first time is very hard, if not sometimes impossible, to do. We were heading into Mountain Phase in the fall… and if he did not pass his leadership positions, he would be held back to try again, and sometimes winter classes are even harder to graduate. They are certainly harder to endure. If he didn't focus on the task at hand and make sure he had backup plans for his backup plans, he could miss the entire football season, including the playoffs. In other words, because of Murphy, he'll need to forget about football for a few weeks and concentrate on the task at hand.
Remember, Murphy, gets a vote. He should have focused on becoming a Ranger. Unfortunately, he distracted himself to no end. The problem is that graduating the first time around in Ranger School is not something you can control. It was early fall, and if we didn't screw anything up, we were headed for a Ranger graduation on the 25th of October. He was so focused on football that he lacked the mental energy to work contingency plans for the Ranger training missions. This created a two-fold problem for him. First, setting extra stress on himself by needing to graduate in time to see the Packers reach the playoffs added stress to the most stressful experience a young military leader can face in training. Second, not having a backup plan in case he ran into trouble on a practice mission almost ensured he would fail. Ranger School is a defacto 24/7/365 type experience until you graduate. Watching sports on the television is not on the menu.
He put so much stress on himself by demanding to get it right the first time that he couldn't get it right the first or second time. He literally fell apart on his missions, unable to accomplish the goals and objectives. This made it impossible for him to graduate on time. He was broken when he failed and got recycled. No Football till next year, and maybe no "RANGER" for the rest of his life.
He failed at both goals by not focusing on the task and developing an effective contingency plan. He only had one plan, and it cost him. He should have forgotten football and focused on becoming a Ranger, developing the planning strategies to thrive and succeed.
If you don't know about Stockdale's Paradox, read the chapter in Jim Collin's Good to Great masterpiece by the same name. Sure, it is great to have goals, but predicting early success is a terrible thing to do mentally. In other words, plan for things to go wrong, and know how you will succeed even if they do.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail. It is better to determine that you will never surrender, no matter what the contingencies, than to plan for nothing but success along your journey.
At Ranger School, Ranger Instructors (RIs) teach a minimum of what they call a BLACK-and-GOLD plan. To give you context, Ranger colors are BLACK and GOLD. This means that for every plan A you have (which is called affectionately plan "BLACK"), you also put in a backup plan in case the "BLACK' plan will not work. If you're on a mission, it's as simple as saying, okay, BLACK is our plan A, and GOLD is B. For example, you may be behind enemy lines with a team of warriors and have infiltrated close to an enemy headquarters unit, which you plan on raiding just before sunrise. As you prepare for your raid, you might have to spend the evening in an Objective Rally Point (O.R.P.), the staging ground for your mission. If that is the case, the mission leader will tell everyone what to do in case of enemy attacks on their current position. In case you are being overrun, the commander might say to you something like BLACK (PLAN A) will be to fall back to the last known rally point, which is to the south. But, in case the enemy attacks from the south, GOLD (Plan B) will be to fall back to a hilltop 2 kilometers to the west.
Later, if you get hit by an enemy attack, knowing beforehand what you will do if overrun could mean the difference between life and death. Why not just call it PLAN A and PLAN B? Because, under stress, simple letters like A and B don't have the recall and distinctive sounding nature of "BLACK" and "GOLD." Later in the mission, if there is intense fighting or chaos, or /whatever, you don't have to sit down and brief a Plan B; you have to go "down the line" communicating GOLD GOLD GOLD. If you've already briefed GOLD, you don't have to sit down and draw out stick figures and hope everybody gets it. What's even better than the black and gold plan is called a pace plan, which originates from our nation's Special Operations forces.
Specifically, it comes from Special Forces, who are known as detailed planners for behind-the-lines missions against enemy forces. Their acronym is P.A.C.E., which stands for primary, alternate, contingency, and emergency. This is widely used among Rangers and Special Operations forces. I tell business owners simply this, once you have your primary, build a backup.
This creates a BLACK-and-GOLD plan. Once you have established that BLACK-and-GOLD plan, you can start working on plan C; C for contingency. At this point, you've created a Primary, Alternate, and Contingency plan; if time allows, you create plan E as an E for Emergency.
So there you have it. Black and Gold is a simple saying that allows you to have a backup when time is short. You can extend that into a P.A.C.E. strategy which gives you four options: primary, alternate, contingency, and emergency.
The question is, do you have a BLACK and GOLD? If you do, great. And if so, do you have a P.A.C.E. strategy in place? This can be a lifesaver for many leaders who are so sure of what they think they know or do. In some cases, literally.
As a business leader, teach your people, "Okay, what happens if the manager doesn't show up today? What are you going to do?" "What happens if the cook doesn't show up in a restaurant? What are we going to do?" "What happens if we have a truck go down on the route? What are we going to do?"
A simple exercise of war gaming allows you to think about possible contingencies and deal with them.
